Barkley leads Trojans to win over Hawaii in Kiffin's USC debut

NCAA Football Betting Lines

09/03/2010 - Honolulu, HI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Matt Barkley tied a school record by throwing for five touchdowns, as 14th-ranked Southern California beat Hawaii, 49-36, giving Lane Kiffin a victory in his coaching debut with the Trojans.

Ronald Johnson caught three scoring passes and returned a punt 89 yards for another TD for the Trojans, who posted their 13th straight win in a season opener.

Despite being ranked to start the season and with high aspirations, the Trojans won't be going to a bowl game. They were hit with a two-year postseason ban as a result of violations stemming from former USC standout football player Reggie Bush and basketball star O.J. Mayo.

Marc Tyler ran for 154 yards and a touchdown for the Trojans (1-0), who are 7-0 all-time against Hawaii.

Barkley, who led USC to an Emerald Bowl win over Boston College last December, completed 18-of-23 passes for 257 yards.

Kiffin, previously an assistant at USC, left Tennessee unceremoniously after just one year and took over for Pete Carroll who once again has jumped to the NFL, this time with the Seahawks.

Bryant Moniz connected on 18-of-36 passes for 269 yards and a score for the Warriors (0-1), but he left the game in the third quarter after taking a blow to the head on a hit from USC linebacker Michael Morgan.

The Warriors rolled up 588 yards of offense, but couldn't give head coach Greg McMackin a win as he began a third season with Hawaii, which is coming off a 6-7 campaign. Included in the big offensive showing were three receivers going over 100 yards. Greg Salas caught eight balls for 124, Royce Pollard seven for 106, and Kealoha Pilares five for 176 and three touchdowns.

Moniz suffered a cut to his right elbow after being hit hard by Morgan during a 13-yard scramble to the USC five. Brent Rausch replaced Moniz and the Warriors scored on a one-yard run from Alex Green, getting Hawaii within 34-23 with 1:54 left in the quarter.

Barkley, though, quickly struck back, hitting Stanley Havili for 49 yards, and then finding Johnson for a three-yard score with 27 seconds left in the third. Mitch Mustain's run accounted for the two-point conversion.

Shane Austin's 65-yard TD pass to Pilares had Hawaii knocking on the door again with 6:48 left in the game, but just 13 seconds later, Tyler broke off a 44-yard TD run.

Pilares and Austin hooked up from 30 yards away with under four minutes left.

Barkley threw 46 yards to David Ausberry for a TD nearly five minutes into the game. Kiffin brought out an odd formation for a two-point conversion try, but Mustain's pass went awry.

Scott Enos kicked a 24-yard field goal, but Barkley's one-yard TD pass to Johnson and the subsequent two-point conversion by the pair widened USC's lead to 14-3 with 1:38 left in the opening quarter.

It became 20-3 when Barkley passed to Rhett Ellison for a six-yard score early in the second.

Enos kicked a 40-yard field goal and the Warriors made it a seven-point spread after Pilares broke a tackle on the way to a 56-yard catch-and-run for a TD with nearly three minutes left in the half.

Hawaii's defense again failed, though, as Barkley hit Johnson for a 13-yard score with 1:06 remaining.

A big replay with 12 seconds left in the first half was the difference between a touchdown and a field goal for the Warriors. Salas caught a short pass and was tackled by linebacker Malcolm Smith near the goal line. Salas seemed to reach the ball over the plane, but officials ruled the ball short after the replay. The crowd of 44,204 went wild when they thought referee Bill Athan signaled touchdown, but instead he was showing how short the ball was from the goal line. Enos ended up kicking an 18-yard field goal for a 27-16 margin.

Johnson bolted down the right sideline for his TD punt return midway through the third quarter.

Game Notes

USC is 30-1 against current Western Athletic Conference teams...The Trojans have won 17 straight non-conference games...This was the first of a school- record seven road outings for the Trojans this year...Hawaii is 15-35 all-time against members of the Pac-10 Conference...Austin completed 6-of-9 passes for 141 yards...Johnson ended with seven catches for 59 yards.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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