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03/09/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 57th-annual Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament is on tap this week from the Greensboro Coliseum and will run from opening round action on Thursday, March 11th through the championship game on Sunday, March 14th.
This was not a usual season throughout the ACC, as the biggest surprise may not be who won the regular-season crown, but rather, how far the mighty have fallen. The defending national champion North Carolina Tar Heels were going to face a tough challenge in maintaining their status atop the conference, but no one could have foreseen the team's total collapse. When all was said and done though, it turned into a two-horse race, with Duke and Maryland sharing the conference title with solid 13-3 league ledgers.
The Blue Devils earned the top-seed in the tournament, but it really shouldn't effect the Terrapins all that much, as like the regular season, the tournament looks to follow suit with two legitimate candidates and the rest playing catchup. Joining Duke and Maryland with first-round byes are three-seeded Florida State and fourth-seeded Virginia Tech. The rest of the field will play in opening round action on Thursday.
The tournament will open up with ninth-seeded Virginia taking on eighth-seeded Boston College. Tony Bennett's Cavaliers finished one game under .500 overall at 14-15 and won just five conference games in his first season at the helm. To make matters worse, Virginia lost nine straight games to close out the regular season. The likelihood of a strong run in this event isn't very good, especially with the recent suspension of sophomore guard Sylven Landesberg, who finished fifth in the conference in scoring at 17.3 ppg and earned All-ACC Second-Team honors. Landesberg will miss the remainder of the season for academic reasons. The team has won just one ACC Tournament title and that came all the way back in 1976 and ending that drought isn't likely. Al Skinner's Eagles are still relatively new to this event and have yet to win a tourney title in the ACC with a 5-4 mark all-time. Boston College is also fighting an uphill battle coming into the postseason at 15-15 overall and a 6-10 mark in league play. The team did finish with three wins in its last five games, including a 68-55 decision over the Cavaliers a week ago. The team has several players averaging double-digits in points, none more important than All-ACC Third-Team member Joe Trapani (14.6 ppg).
The second opening-round matchup features fifth-seeded Wake Forest against 12th-seeded Miami-Florida. Dino Gaudio's Demon Deacons showed flashes of brilliance this season, just not enough consistency. Wake was ranked in the top-25 this year and had some quality wins over the likes of Gonzaga, Richmond, Xavier and Maryland en route to 19 total victories. Conference play resulted in a 9-7 mark, tied with Clemson for fifth place. An exciting team with an outside chance at making a run to the finals of this event, Wake relies on the low post game of sophomore forward Al-Farouq Aminu to fuel its attack. Aminu led the conference in rebounding (10.8 rpg) and averaged 15.9 ppg, earning All-ACC Second-Team honors. Point guard Ishmael Smith (13.3 ppg, 6.0 apg) joined Aminu on the all-conference Second-Team. Wake Forest has four tournament titles to its name, with the last coming in 1996. Frank Haith's Hurricanes had plenty of problems this year in league play finishing in last place at 4-12. That doesn't sum up this team though, as Miami won 18 games in the regular season, and ran flawless through the non-conference slate. However, it won't be easy to erase five losses in the last six games and start anew in tournament play. Miami is one of five schools to have never won an ACC Tournament crown. These two teams split a pair of meetings this year, each winning on its home floor.
Next on the docket in the opening round is seventh-seeded Georgia Tech against 10th-seeded North Carolina. The Yellow Jackets are an extremely young team, but Paul Hewitt's squad showed glimpses of its great potential, hovering in and around the top-25 for a good portion of the second half of the season. Tech needs just one more victory to reach the 20-win plateau, but a 7-9 in- conference record doesn't exactly have this team brimming with confidence right now. The strength of the Yellow Jackets resides in the frontcourt in the form of All-ACC Third Teamer Gani Lawal (13.6 ppg, 8.8 rpg) and All-ACC Freshman Team member Derrick Favors (11.9 ppg, 8.4 rpg). The Yellow Jackets haven't won the ACC Tournament since 1993, although the team did make a final appearance in 2005. The defending national champions fell off the face of the ACC world this season and although the Tar Heels have won 17 tournament titles, tied with Duke, it would take a miracle to earn number 18 this season. With a mass exodus from last year's title team, coupled with key injuries this season, UNC simply fell flat. A 16-15 overall mark is certainly not up to the standards set in Chapel Hill and a 5-11 league mark is unheard of. The loss of talented forward Ed Davis to a broken wrist certainly didn't help matters. Roy William's Tar Heels, who had a pair of three-game losing streaks in-conference and another four-game slide, failed to land a player on any of the all- conference squads for the first time in ACC history. Georgia Tech swept the regular-season series with North Carolina.
The final game of the opening round pits sixth-seeded Clemson against 11th- seeded NC State. Oliver Purnell's Tigers were in and out of the top-25 this season, finishing 21-9 overall and 9-7 in ACC action. At times, Clemson looked like a conference contender, but at other times, the team simply looked mediocre. Still, with wins in six of the last nine games to close out the year, a strong run in this tournament would not be a shock, despite a less than stellar 16-56 all-time mark in this event. A dangerous offensive team, Clemson looks to veteran forward Trevor Booker to lead the way. Booker was a First-Team All-ACC selection and was also named to the All-Defensive Team, averaging 15.3 points and 8.8 rebounds per game. Sidney Lowe's Wolfpack resided around the bottom of the league standings for much of the season, but finished off at 17-14 overall and 5-11 in-conference, thanks to timely wins in three of the last four games. Junior forward Tracy Smith was clearly the catalyst for the squad, earning All-ACC Second-Team honors, averaging 17.0 points and 7.7 rebounds per outing. NC State has a rich tradition in this event, with 10 tournament titles and a 61-46 all-time record, but the last championship came back in 1987. Clemson won the only meeting between these two teams in the regular season, 73-70.
The Blue Devils will await the Virginia/Boston College winner in quarterfinal action on Friday. Mike Krzyzewski's squad won a conference-best 26 games in the regular season, but failed to nail down the outright conference crown with a loss last week to Maryland, ending an eight-game win streak. Still, the team took care of business in a rout of rival North Carolina in the regular-season finale to earn a share of the title and top overall seed. Duke, which won the tournament last season, is tied with North Carolina for most tournament titles with 17, as well as tournament victories with 84. This year's squad features a trio of All-ACC performers, including two First-Team members in point guard Jon Scheyer (18.9 ppg, 5.2 apg) and forward Kyle Singler (17.2 ppg. 6.8 rpg). Nolan Smith (17.6 ppg) is another outstanding scoring option, earning Second- Team status as a result.
The Terrapins picked up the second seed, despite sharing the regular-season crown. All-ACC First-Team star Greivis Vasquez was the main reason why. The senior guard was arguably the ACC's best court general, ranking second in the league in scoring (19.6 ppg) and first in assists (6.3 apg). Gary William's Terrapins will take on the North Carolina/Georgia Tech winner in the quarterfinals. No team comes into the postseason any hotter, as Maryland brings a seven-game win streak with it to Greensboro, including huge wins over Duke and Virginia Tech over the last two weeks.
Leonard Hamilton's Seminoles picked up the three-seed and an opening-round bye with a solid 10-6 league mark. More impressive was FSU's 22-8 overall mark. It didn't look good for the Seminoles in mid-February, but the team ran off five wins in its last six games to earn the bye. FSU is one of those teams without a tournament title and is just 9-18 all-time in this event. The Seminoles will get the winner of the NC State/Clemson game in the quarterfinals and will no doubt attempt to enforce their will defensively on whoever they are playing. Solomon Alabi (11.6 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 70 blocks) and Chris Singleton (10.4 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 69 steals) earned All-ACC Third-Team recognition for their efforts this year and both were named to the All-Defensive Team as well.
The fourth and final bye went to Seth Greenberg's Hokies. Virginia Tech had a run in February that had the team on the verge of breaking into the top-25, but three straight losses to Duke, Boston College and Maryland left the team on the outside looking in. Still, Tech finished strong with back-to-back wins to close out the regular season and finished 10-6 in-conference and 23-7 overall. The Hokies await the winner of the Miami-Florida/Wake Forest opening round matchup. An explosive team, Virginia Tech has an outside shot at making a run to the finals. If so, expect All-ACC First-Teamer Malcolm Delaney to play a big part. The junior guard led the league in scoring this season, pouring in almost 21 points per game (20.9). Fellow juniors Dorenzo Hudson (Third-Team member at 14.4 ppg) and Jeff Allen (12.1 ppg, 7.3 rpg) provide plenty of support. Virginia Tech is just 3-5 all-time in this event.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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MySportsbook.com Favors Fighting Irish to win College Football betting odds
According to odds makers at MySportsbook.com, on January 8, the Fighting Irish faithful may be toasting their 14th national title in Arizona – Notre Dame’s first national championship in close to 20 years.
Although MySportsbook.com has listed Notre Dame as the 5-1 favorite to win thecollege football College Football betting, fans in Columbus do not need to cancel their tickets to Glendale just yet. The Ohio State Buckeyes, listed right behind the Irish at 7-1, are also heavy favorites to win college football’s most coveted prize, while West Virginia, USC and the 2007 National Champion Texas Longhorns - all listed at 8-1 – are strong contenders as well.
MySportsbook.com has also posted gambling odds on the conference championships for the ACC, Big 12 and SEC. In the ACC – it could be anyone’s title, particularly for the two schools from the Sunshine State. Florida State and Miami, both listed at 2-1, are favored to win the ACC Championship Game odds, with the ‘Noles hoping to finish in the nation’s top 10 for the first time in five years, and the ‘Canes looking to avenge their 10-7 loss against FSU in last year’s ACC Championship betting.
Moving west to the Big 12, MySportsbook.com has betting lines listing Texas as 7-5 favorites to repeat as conference champions, even though the Longhorns lost their national championship-winning quarterback Vince Young to the NFL. In the south, the Auburn Tigers – led by Heisman-hopeful senior running back Kenny Irons – have been given the best odds to win the SEC Championship odds at 5-2.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.
| Notre Dame Ohio State West Virginia Texas USC Florida California Auburn Oklahoma Iowa Louisville Florida State Michigan Miami (FL) LSU Penn State Virginia Tech Nebraska Tennessee Georgia Arizona State Oregon Clemson Texas A&M Texas Tech Alabama Arkansas Boston College Michigan State Maryland South Carolina Colorado Purdue Georgia Tech TCU UCLA Arizona Pittsburgh Iowa State Wisconsin North Carolina State Virginia North Carolina Fresno State Hawaii Northwestern BYU Oregon State UNLV Field (Any Other Team) |
5-1 7-1 8-1 8-1 8-1 12-1 15-1 15-1 18-1 20-1 20-1 20-1 20-1 20-1 25-1 40-1 40-1 50-1 60-1 60-1 60-1 70-1 70-1 100-1 100-1 100-1 100-1 100-1 150-1 200-1 200-1 200-1 200-1 200-1 250-1 250-1 300-1 300-1 300-1 300-1 300-1 300-1 400-1 500-1 500-1 500-1 500-1 1000-1 1000-1 40-1 |
| Miami (FL) Florida State Virginia Tech Clemson Georgia Tech Boston College Maryland Virginia North Carolina State North Carolina Wake Forest Duke |
2-1 2-1 3-1 7-1 15-1 15-1 15-1 30-1 30-1 30-1 50-1 500-1 |
| Texas Oklahoma Nebraska Texas Tech Colorado Iowa State Texas A&M Kansas State Missouri Kansas Baylor Oklahoma State |
7-5 9-5 9-2 12-1 14-1 15-1 15-1 30-1 30-1 35-1 100-1 100-1 |
| Auburn Florida LSU Georgia Tennessee Arkansas Alabama Mississippi South Carolina Mississippi State Kentucky Vanderbilt |
5-2 11-4 4-1 6-1 7-1 7-1 9-1 20-1 28-1 75-1 100-1 300-1 |
For complete NCAA football odds please visit Mysportsbook.com.
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